SE Winds a coming for the weekend

[morey]

We're looking at a nice moderate SE flow for Saturday.
Could be flyable all day at Miller again- just like last Sunday.
'A' Mountain is also a possibility. Who knows.

Doesn't seem like a 'glass off at Box' kinda' weekend.

[Eric]

The A could possibly work on Friday, a long shot thou.
Saturday is looking like a good easterly wind day at Miller, light enough for Pg`s as well.

Eric

[Eric]

The weather service revised forcast is calling for a tightening of the gradient and wind gusts to 25 from the east tomorrow. Any one going to be available to check the A out?
Still looks lighter for Sat.

Eric

[Dave Snyder]

I'm up for a Miller run on Saturday

[Dave Snyder]

Are you guys getting your forecast strictly from NOAA? If not, post the links, thanks.

[morey]

Here ya' go Dave:

Looks like the easterly winds never really blew through today, so the 'A' never worked:
http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/products/graphs/dailyE/

But for tomorrow- it looks flyable all day for Miller, and the winds will be waning, so if they are too strong early, it will get mellower as the day goes on.

I look at the following sites:
Firstly aways:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/forecasts/AZZ03 ... ity=Tucson
and then read the 'discussion'. Also, I look at the digital forecast for the point of interest:
http://ifps.wrh.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/dwf?siteID=TWC
which is currently calling for surface winds at 8kts from the SE tomorrow.

These are always fun to look at, but I don't take them seriously:
http://www.intellicast.com/IcastPage/Lo ... dnav=d1_00

for more than a day out, I always look at the ADDS for 6kft and 9kft at 1800hrs (11am).
http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/winds/

Then, starting a day out, you can get predictions from the Bak40 model for 24hrs out. Type in 24 in the hours box, and FHU (fort huachuca) or TUS in the location box;
http://www-frd.fsl.noaa.gov/mab/soundings/java/
If you just want winds, then hit the 'get text' button at the bottom. Subtract 7 hrs from GMT to get Tucson time.
Frankly, I don't trust the Bak40 Model as much as the Op40, but the Op40 only goes out like 9 hours or so. I've seen the Bak40 do this before, where it predicts strong winds squeezed into the 5-7kft level, but light below and above. The last 3 times I saw this predicted, it didn't come to fruition, and winds were much lighter on our 7600ft launch than what the models said. After the sounding balloon goes up tomorrow morning, they update the models, usually before 7:30am and we often get big changes in the prediction. So- check right before you leave the house.

Hopefully that helps, Dave. But, the bottom line is that when we get to Miller tomorrow, it will be blowing in anywhere from nicely to briskly. Looks like I'll bring the stiffie. I don't think that we need to leave too early. I10 and Houghton at 9am? LZ at 10am?

[Dave Snyder]

Thanks Morey. I'm meeting Eric at his place at 8, so around 9 at Houghton and the freeway sounds right after gassin' up and all.

[jlowery]

I'm in, I'll see you at Eric's.

I also heard from Jeromy Gofton (PG) and he'll be meeting us in the LZ.

John

[morey]

Just as predicted, there was a nice SE breeze, but also just as predicted, the SE breeze turned to the SSE as you rose above 7kft. So, at launch it was blowing in, but cross from the right.

Given the nice 10kt wind, we were all confident that it would be ridge soarable. That is, until Eric danced off in his mylar T2, and showed us it wasn't. That T2 slithered up and down the canyon in search of anything- with a beautiful glide and sink rate. So- we can talk about how slowly he sank... but sink he did. Oh well. Dave Snyder tossed himself off in Eric's new Falcon 3, and then shortly afterwards myself and Eric Tucker in our respective Sport II's. There were some workable bumps down low. I nabbed one that took me up about 400 feet, but ultimately, none of us got more than about 20min of extended sledder.

John, being the mench that he is, made a comment about his back hurting him, and opted not to fly- but we all knew that he was really just offering to drive the vehicle down. Jeremy gave it his all, and set up the floppy wing on the SE launch. But, the wind was waning at this point and he never did get that laminar flow that's necessary to safely launch a PG from the SE launch- so he too packed it up and drove down.

Not the best flying in the world, but everyone had solid safe launches and landings, and walked away with smiles. Well, except for Eric Tucker who had to listen to me ramble on about politics all the way home

[Gunter]

Jeremy, that was a very smart and prudent decision you made - not to launch. I know how hard it is to spend all that time driving down there and then not get to fly. It show's to me that you have the maturity it takes to be a safe PG pilot, especially since you've packed up numerous times. You should be very proud of yourself.
If you (or anyone else) would like to come over to the house and watch some great PG'g training and acro videos just let me know. It could be a fun day, especially if it's not flyable, and we can have a cook out in the back yard.
This is open for all.
By the way, I soon will be posting my equipment I have for sale.
On another note, I've lost about 35 pounds so far. Amazing how heavy my left foot was!! (ha ha)

Update: just had another op. on the right foot trying to get those darn stitches to hold the skin together. Not a big deal for me anymore. Check into UMC by 1pm, and go under, wake up and be home by 7:30 pm.
This was op # 11 on the right foot and # 16 over all. They project 2 more ops. One is to fill the holes in my right ankle with bone from my hip, and the other (hopefully the last) is to remove the metal plate and screws in the right foot.
OH ya, I should be fitted for the first prothesis next week (the latest op cancel the appointment this week.)

Thanks again for all your support; and Jeremy thanks for setting the example in safety.

Gunter